Home Forums Climate Resilience via Agroecology Weekly Lesson Forum Week 1: Climate Change and Agriculture Reply To: Week 1: Climate Change and Agriculture

  • Gwenael

    Member
    August 29, 2018 at 9:40 am

    The presentation by Tapan from UC ANR gave excellent context for understanding the tools on the Cal-Adapt website. As he said, the increase in the average minimum annual temperature can have significant impacts due to crops not receiving enough chill hours during the winter. The point about “warm nights” causing stress for both animals and humans was an interesting one as well.

    The Cal-Adapt model shows a significant increase in the number of cooling days. I was interested to see from the modeling that annual precipitation is expected to increase in California. The written interpretation of the projections describes “little change in total annual precipitation in California [and a continuation of the] Mediterranean seasonal precipitation pattern, with most precipitation falling during winter from North Pacific storms.”

    Given the projections relating to precipitation, I was confused by the “Extended Drought Scenario” which states that recent research suggests that extended drought occurrence (“mega-drought”) could become more pervasive in future decades. The modeling for the 20 year drought shows one scenario that has drought beginning in the early 2020s – just a few years away!